A Hudson Valley meteorologist believes New Yorkers must prepare for a lot of snow this winter.

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In early October, meteorologist Ben Noll said there could be "an abrupt start to winter" for the Hudson Valley and Empire State.

Some really interesting trends in U.S. weather patterns as we head into November...

Warm eastern ridge goes poleward, +PNA ridge pops along the West Coast by ~November 10th.

❄️ If I was in a snow day pool, I'd be going earlier than normal — could be an abrupt start to winter, Noll tweeted.

Noll is originally from Orange County. He's currently a meteorologist at the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research in Auckland, New Zealand. From June 2013 through January 2016 he worked as a meteorologist for AccuWeather.

New York State Police
New York State Police

Over the weekend Noll released his Hudson Valley 2021-22 Winter Outlook and his updated forecast didn't bring good news for those who don't want to deal with a lot of snow.

Noll said last winter was about average in terms of snowfall, but the upcoming winter should bring more snow.

"Did you think last winter was bad? By the books, temperatures were near average and snowfall was above average. The Hudson Valley regional average total snowfall was about 60 inches, 20 inches above the long-term normal," Noll wrote.

Noll believes there is an 80 percent chance of above-normal snowfall and just a 20 percent for below-normal snowfall.

An elevated chance (80%) for either normal or above normal seasonal snowfall; a 20% chance for below normal snowfall

Noll did offer some good news in terms of early snow.

There’s a 50-50 chance for some accumulating snow in November and a 60% chance for at least 10 inches in December

Noll also doesn't think it will "the coldest winter ever."

It’s not looking like the coldest winter ever, but it can still snow even if temperatures aren’t colder than average

Hudson Valley Post recently reported, Accuweather warned Empire State residents cold weather is expected to "make an early arrival" this winter.

Carved Pumpkins in the snow
Tony Savino

Accuweather Senior Meteorologist Paul Pastelok believes cold air will chill the Northeast in November.

"This winter, I think, is going to be a colder one," Pastelok said. "Last winter, temperatures across these areas were right around normal, but this year, the winter as a whole is likely to average 1 to 3 degrees Fahrenheit below normal."


The Old Farmer's Almanac agrees with Accuweather.


They called the upcoming winter season the "Season of Shivers" and believe this could be one of the "longest and coldest" winters New York has seen in years.

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