Climate Expert Says When New York Will See First Snow

A new map from a climate expert is giving us our first look at when snow could arrive across New York this season. It might be sooner than you hoped or thought.

Summer isn't even officially over yet, but a new map from a climatologist is already giving us a pretty good idea of when to expect that first snowfall across New York State, and for most of us it's closer than you might think.

Climate Expert Just Mapped Out When New York Could See Its First Snow Of The Season

Climatologist Brian Brettschneider pulled together 45 years of snow records from NOAA's Global Historical Climatology Network to calculate the median date of first snowfall for every region of the country.

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The result is a color-coded map that tells you when your area has at least a 50 percent chance of seeing measurable snow based on historical patterns.

It Could Snow In New York In About 10 Weeks!

For most of New York State, including the Hudson Valley, that window is November 1 through November 15. That's roughly only 10 weeks away.

Upstate New York near the Great Lakes is a different story entirely due to lake-effect snow. Communities closest to Lake Erie and Lake Ontario will almost certainly see snow well before anyone in the Hudson Valley does.

The Dates When New York State Typically Sees Its 1st Snowstorm

Super El Nino

The other factor hanging over this winter is a strengthening El Niño that some scientists are calling a potential "super" El Niño, expected to peak in late 2026 and into early 2027. That's the same weather pattern we covered earlier when the NOAA released its winter outlook predicting above-average temperatures for the Northeast.

Warmer overall doesn't mean snow-free though, and the first snowfall date is based on historical medians that predate any single season's temperature pattern.

Rest Of The Country

Most of the Midwest is looking at November 16 through December 15 for first snow, while the South and Southwest are pushing late December or even into the new year.