Hudson Valley Nor’easter Update: When The Worst Rain Hits
Hudson Valley Weather just updated its nor'easter forecast. What's expected in your town.
The nor'easter that forecasters have been tracking for nearly two weeks is now developing off the East Coast, and the big question this morning is how much of Saturday you can salvage.
Nor'easter Update: Here's What Hudson Valley Weather Is Saying About Your Weekend
Hudson Valley Weather says this is one of the more difficult forecasts they've had to make, and here's why.
Friday will turn increasingly cloudy and breezy as the storm tightens its grip. North and northeast winds will gust 20 to 30 MPH throughout the day.
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Some showers may begin reaching the southeastern parts of the Hudson Valley later today and tonight, but locations farther north and west should stay dry longer.
Saturday Is The Wild Card
According to Hudson Valley Weather, three different weather models are telling three noticeably different stories about Saturday.
The NAM model keeps the heaviest rainfall southeast of much of the Hudson Valley through most of the day. The GFS pushes rain a bit farther northwest. The Euro is the most aggressive, bringing steadier rainfall farther inland earlier.
The difference between a decent Saturday and a washed-out one comes down to where the western edge of the rain shield sets up.
Move it 30 to 50 miles east and parts of the Hudson Valley squeeze out a usable morning. Move it 30 to 50 miles west and steady rain arrives much earlier.
Location will matter significantly.
Dutchess, Putnam, Orange, and southeastern Ulster County have a greater chance of dealing with rain during the day. For the central Mid-Hudson Valley, morning plans have a better shot than afternoon plans, but even that is uncertain.
The farther north and west you go, toward the Catskills and the Capital Region, the better your chances of staying dry longer.
Don't Think A Dry Saturday Means A Miss
Even if parts of the Hudson Valley stay relatively dry Saturday, the storm isn't going anywhere. The nor'easter will slow dramatically beneath a blocking pattern and begin looping back toward the coast, wrapping Atlantic moisture farther inland as it does.
Sunday and Monday are shaping up to be the worst days, with Sunday looking particularly rough and rain not fully clearing until late Monday.
Total rainfall for the Mid-Hudson Valley and eastern Catskills is expected to run 1 to 2 inches, with locally higher amounts possible.
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