Timeline For Potential Snow Across Hudson Valley, New York

The odds of the "first significant winter storm of the 21-22 season" continue to increase.

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On Monday, Hudson Valley Weather thought there was a 60 percent chance the region would see its "first significant winter storm of the 21-22 season" and a 40 percent chance of the storm missing the Hudson Valley.

On Tuesday, there was a 75 percent chance of snow and a 25 percent chance of a complete miss.

"Previously, the guidance seemed split between a significant snowstorm and a complete miss. On Monday the models met in the middle, with a solution that looks more likely to bring snow to the Hudson Valley, but in the form of a weaker storm," Hudson Valley Weather wrote Tuesday morning.

As we get closer to potential snow Thursday into Friday the chances of snow continue to increase. Hudson Valley Weather now puts the chances of snow at 85 percent with a 15 percent chance of a complete miss.

"Early projections would give our region between 2 and 6 inches of snow, depending on how the details unfold in the next 24 to 36 hours," Hudson Valley Weather wrote early Wednesday. "This would have implications for the Friday AM commute."

Hudson Valley Weather believes there is a 30 percent chance of 1 to 3 inches of snow, a 40 percent chance of 3 to 6 inches of snow and a 15 percent chance of over a half-foot of snow.

Snow is expected to start falling around midnight on Friday and continue to fall until around noon. The heaviest snow is expected south and east of the region, officials say.

"It is important to note, that we can still experience changes in the data. If the upper level trough is stronger and deeper, it could mean a storm that hugs the coast and intensifies. These little details in the setup can create big changes in the end result... so we'll be watching closely," Hudson Valley Weather adds.

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