Should New Yorkers “Bet” On A “Really Bad Winter”
A Hudson Valley weather expert released his prediction for the upcoming winter.
On Saturday, meteorologist Ben Noll released his 2024-25 Hudson Valley winter outlook.
2024-25 Hudson Valley Winter Outlook
According to Noll, there are a lot of factors that will impact the upcoming winter, including a warming climate, La Niña, jet streams, a warm North Pacific and Atlantic, as well as patterns of pressure, precipitation, and temperature.
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So what does it mean in terms of snow? A snowier-than-normal winter is unlikely, but a few "well-timed" storms could lead to snow days.
"While I don't think a snowier-than-normal winter is the most likely outcome, the lack of a strong El Niño is enough to keep hopes alive for a few well-timed snow days - especially if the polar vortex makes an appearance late in the season, like it did in the La Niña winter of 2021," Noll states in his latest newsletter. "Climate models predict seasonal snowfall."
Not Good Odds For Snowier Than Normal Winter
According to Noll, "the odds aren't in your favor for a snowier than normal winter including the Hudson Valley."
"Clearly, the odds aren't great, but they ever-so-slightly favor a season that starts slow and finishes somewhat stronger," Noll adds. "A polar vortex disturbance, like the one that occurred in January 2021, could change the Hudson Valley's fortunes and lead to heavy late winter snowfall."
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Chances of Above Normal Snowfall In The Hudson Valley During the Upcoming Months
Noll also provided the chances of above-normal snowfall for November through March.
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"The data shows that modern winters just aren’t as bad as the ones your grandparents faced. It’s a function of warmer temperatures, less frequent extreme cold, and a slight trend toward less snow. It doesn’t mean that a “really bad” winter isn’t possible in 2024-25, but you probably wouldn’t want to bet on it," Noll adds.
Biggest snowfalls recorded in New York history
Biggest snowfalls recorded in New York history
Gallery Credit: Stacker
The Dates When New York State Typically Sees Its 1st Snowstorm
The Dates When New York State Typically Sees Its 1st Snowstorm
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