A new computer model says that the Hudson Valley is expected to have a pretty mild winter. But there may be more to the story.

The Weather Channel is reporting on a new weather outlook that has just been released today by The Weather Company, an IBM Business. The computer model is predicting a warmer than usual winter for the Hudson Valley, and many other parts of the country.

In December the Hudson Valley is expected to have average to slightly warmer conditions. January, which is usually when the most volatile weather patterns emerge, is looking at bringing above-average temperatures to our area, as well as most of the northeast. Because we'll be experiencing La Niña conditions, there is a risk of a wobble that could cool things down, but three of the four warmest recorded Januaries have all happened during La Niña. The winter isn't expected to end even warmer, with higher than average temperatures continuing through February.

As for snowfall, the Hudson Valley may also be in for some good news. La Niña usually brings more snow to the northwest and Great Lakes region and less snow to the Mid-Atlantic region. A map of average patterns for years with La Niña conditions, however, shows portions of the Hudson Valley at -2 to -4 inches below normal.

While this new computer model may be more reliable than other forecasts in the past, there is one thing that will ensure we won't see any major snowstorms in the Hudson Valley this winter; I just purchased a generator.

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