New York officials released details about what metrics your hometown has to hit to face COVID-19 related restrictions or lockdowns.

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On Oct. 21, Gov. Andrew Cuomo released his COVID-19 Micro-Cluster strategy to try and slow the spread of COVID-19. ZIP codes and other geopolitical or other common geographic subdivisions such as county, census tracts, or contiguous neighborhoods will be identified where clusters may be occurring. When cases start to rise in a defined area that area will be put into a focus zone, either an Orange, Yellow, or Red zone.

The Micro-Cluster strategy has been talked about for the past six weeks, but the metrics needed to enter or exited a zone haven't been widely reported. Hudson Valley Post did some digging and below are the metrics needed to enter or exited a zone.

Officials split up the state four tiers.

  • Tier 1: New York City boroughs; Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester, Erie counties; cities of Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, Albany, Yonkers
    • Geographic area (ZIP, census tract, etc.) is located within a county of 900,000 or more people or located within city of 90,000 or more people.
  • Tier 2: Monroe; Onondaga; Orange; Rockland; Albany; Dutchess; Saratoga; Oneida; Niagara; Broome; Ulster; Rensselaer; and Schenectady counties
    • Geographic area (ZIP, census tract, etc.) is located within a county of 150,000 or more people (and jurisdiction is not included in Tier 1).
  • Tier 3: Chautauqua; Oswego; Jefferson; Ontario; St. Lawrence; Tompkins; Putnam; Steuben; Wayne; Chemung; Clinton; Cayuga; Cattaraugus; Sullivan; Madison; Warren; Livingston; Herkimer; Washington; Otsego; Columbia; Genesee; Fulton; Franklin counties
    • Geographic area (ZIP, census tract, etc.) is located within a county of 50,000 or more people.
  • Tier 4: Montgomery; Tioga; Cortland; Chenango; Greene; Allegany; Delaware; Orleans; Wyoming; Essex; Seneca; Schoharie; Lewis; Yates; Schuyler; Hamilton counties
    • Geographic area (ZIP, census tract, etc.) is located within a county of less than 50,000 people

Target Metric For Entering Yellow Zone

  • Tier 1: Geographic area has 7-day rolling average positivity above 2.5% for 10 days. Geographic area has 10 or more new daily cases per 100,000 residents on 7-day average
  • Tier 2: Geographic area has 7-day rolling average positivity above 3% for 10 days. Geographic area has 12 or more new daily cases per 100,000 residents on 7-day average
  • Tier 3: Geographic area has 7-day rolling average positivity above 3.5% for 10 days. Geographic area has 15 or more new daily cases per 100,000 residents on 7-day average
  • Tier 4: Geographic area has 7-day rolling average positivity above 4% for 10 days. Geographic area has 15 or more new daily cases per 100,000 residents on 7-day average

Target Metric For Entering Orange Zone

  • Tier 1: Geographic area has 7-day rolling average positivity above 3% for 10 days. Geographic area has 10 or more new daily cases per 100,000 residents on 7-day average
  • Tier 2: Geographic area has 7-day rolling average positivity above 4% for 10 days. Geographic area has 12 or more new daily cases per 100,000 residents on 7-day average
  • Tier 3: Geographic area has 7-day rolling average positivity above 4.5% for 10 days. Geographic area has 15 or more new daily cases per 100,000 residents on 7-day average
  • Tier 4: Geographic area has 7-day rolling average positivity above 5% for 10 days. Geographic area has 15 or more new daily cases per 100,000 residents on 7-day average

Target Metric For Entering Red Zone

  • Tier 1: Geographic area has 7-day rolling average positivity above 4% for 10 days. Geographic area has 10 or more new daily cases per 100,000 residents on 7-day average
  • Tier 2: Geographic area has 7-day rolling average positivity above 5% for 10 days. Geographic area has 12 or more new daily cases per 100,000 residents on 7-day average
  • Tier 3: Geographic area has 7-day rolling average positivity above 5.5% for 10 days. Geographic area has 15 or more new daily cases per 100,000 residents on 7-day average
  • Tier 4: Geographic area has 7-day rolling average positivity above 6% for 10 days. Geographic area has 15 or more new daily cases per 100,000 residents on 7-day average

Additional Factors For Entering All Zones

  • Geographic areas has minimum of 5 new cases per day on 7-day average for geographic areas (i.e. ZIP code) with 10,000 or more residents, minimum of 3 new cases on 7-day average per day for areas with less than 10,000 residents
  • The increase in positive cases or positivity reflect community spread and cannot be mostly explained by a cluster in a single institution (e.g. nursing home, factory, college, etc.) or household transmission
  • The State Department of Health (DOH), in consultation with the local department of health, finds that based on the above listed metrics, and other epidemiological factors, such as an upward trend in total and daily hospital admissions from residents of this geographic area, that a zone designation is appropriate.

On Monday, the Governor's staff released a press release that confirmed Cuomo's COVID-19 Winter Plan has a strategy in place, called an "Emergency Stop" that will shut down parts of New York State, if a region's hospital system is overwhelmed.

In addition to the 3 existing micro-cluster zone levels (Yellow Precautionary, Orange Warning and Red), New York will also add a new 'Emergency Stop' level, which will effectively put that area under the NY Pause guidelines, if needed to preserve hospital capacity. Hospital metrics associated with these zones will be identified in the next week to 10 days, once data from the Thanksgiving holiday is received and analyzed.

Target Metric To Leave Any Zone

  • Tier 1: Geographic area demonstrates decline in positivity (daily 7-day rolling average) over 10-day period AND has positivity below 1.5% (7-day rolling average) for at least 3 consecutive days at end of 10-day period
  • Tier 2,3,4: Geographic area demonstrates decline in positivity (daily 7-day rolling average) over 10-day period AND has positivity below 2% (7-day rolling average) for at least 3 consecutive days at end of 10-day period.

Target Metric To Leave Orange Zone

  • Tier 1: Geographic area demonstrates decline in positivity (daily 7-day rolling average) over 10-day period AND has positivity below 2% (7-day rolling average) for at least 3 consecutive days at end of 10-day period.
  • Tier 2,3,4: Geographic area demonstrates decline in positivity (daily 7-day rolling average) over 10-day period AND has positivity below 3% (7-day rolling average) for at least 3 consecutive days at end of 10-day period.

Target Metric To Leave Red Zone

  • Tier 1: Geographic area demonstrates decline in positivity (daily 7-day rolling average) over 10-day period AND has positivity below 3% (7-day rolling average) for at least 3 consecutive days at end of 10-day period.
  • Tier 2,3,4: Geographic area demonstrates decline in positivity (daily 7-day rolling average) over 10-day period AND has positivity below 4% (7-day rolling average) for at least 3 consecutive days at end of 10-day period.

Other Factors to Leave Zones

  • The State Department of Health (DOH), in consultation with the local department of health, may find that based on the above listed metrics, epidemiological considerations and/or other relevant factors, or other circumstances that a new zone designation is appropriate, or further data is required before a new zone designation can occur.
  • Additional considerations include:
    • Trends in the daily hospital admissions from the geographic area
    • A finding that new cases are tied to a specific congregate facility, or defined cluster
    • Increased compliance and enforcement actions taken by local government
    • Community cooperation to reduce viral spread
Gov's Office
Gov's Office
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